For years, China’s dominance over global EV battery production seemed unbreakable. With over 80% market share and control of critical mineral supply chains, Beijing appeared to hold an iron grip on the future of electric mobility. The conventional wisdom was clear: any country challenging China’s hegemony would face insurmountable barriers.

But new data reveals a different story unfolding—one where India emerges as an unexpected disruptor capable of fundamentally reshaping global battery supply chains by 2030.

The Cracks in China’s Armor

Despite its current dominance, China’s stranglehold on EV batteries is weakening faster than most experts predicted. Market projections show China’s global battery production share declining from a peak of 82% in 2021 to just 52% by 2030—still significant, but no longer monopolistic.

This erosion creates a strategic opening that India is aggressively pursuing through unprecedented production scaling and investment acceleration.

India’s Manufacturing Sprint

While China’s market share erodes, India is executing perhaps the most ambitious industrial ramp-up in modern history. Starting from a modest 0.5 GWh of battery production capacity in 2020, India is projected to reach 260 GWh by 2030—a staggering 520-fold increase over a single decade.

This scaling represents more than industrial ambition; it’s a calculated bet on capturing 10% of global battery production by 2030, positioning India as the world’s second-largest battery manufacturer.

The Investment Machine

Fueling this transformation is an investment acceleration that mirrors China’s own industrial buildout two decades ago. Annual investment in India’s EV battery sector is set to grow from USD 200 million in 2020 to USD 19.2 billion by 2030, with cumulative investment reaching $85.6 billion over the decade.

This capital deployment combines government Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes with private sector commitments from global battery giants seeking to diversify supply chains away from China.

The Achilles’ Heel

However, India’s battery ambitions face a critical vulnerability: mineral dependency on the very country it seeks to challenge. Indian imports from China remain dangerously concentrated across all battery-critical materials—95% for graphite, 92% for cobalt, 85% for lithium, and 65% for nickel.

This dependency creates a strategic chokepoint where China could potentially throttle India’s battery revolution by restricting mineral exports, similar to rare earth restrictions imposed on Japan in 2010.

The Path to 2030

India’s success in breaking China’s battery stranglehold depends on executing two parallel strategies: maintaining investment momentum while rapidly diversifying mineral supply chains through partnerships with Australia, Chile, and African nations. If successful, India’s emergence as a credible battery alternative could reshape global EV markets by 2030, offering automakers supply chain resilience and potentially driving down battery costs through increased competition.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Success would position India as a key player in the clean energy transition. Failure would leave China’s dominance intact and global supply chains vulnerable to geopolitical manipulation. The race is on, and the next six years will determine whether India can transform from battery importer to global challenger—or remain dependent on China’s industrial machine.